PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTION DAY
The Coalition “Pod lupom” provides its preliminary assessment of Election Day for the Early Election for the President of Republika Srpska from among the Serb people, noting that the election day largely proceeded in accordance with legal requirements and prescribed procedures. However, the Election Day findings indicate that situations persist in which the legal framework and procedural norms were not fully respected. A smaller number of irregularities could, in isolated cases, affect the election results at the level of individual polling stations. These findings may be significant, given the tight race between the two leading candidates for the presidency of Republika Srpska and the fact that the Coalition “Pod lupom” cannot confidently confirm the winner of the electoral contest.
The preliminary assessment of Election Day confirms that reliable voting results and an election day free from proven electoral theft and fraud are only possible with the full implementation of new election technologies, namely electronic voter identification and ballot scanners. Therefore, the Coalition “Pod lupom” calls on all competent institutions to actively work on the introduction of new election technologies in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the coming period.
Results of the Election for President of Republika Srpska from among the Serb people
The Coalition “Pod lupom” also processed the voting results for the President of Republika Srpska from among the Serb people based on a statistically representative sample of polling stations (the so-called PVT). This method allows for independent reporting on election results and validation of voting outcomes, which is especially important in the context of public trust in the election process.
The election results according to the Coalition “Pod lupom” are as follows:
- Dragan Đokanović (Alliance for New Politics): 0.5% (with a margin of error of ±0.08%)
- Branko Blanuša (SDS – Serb Democratic Party): 48.9% (with a margin of error of ±1.5%)
- Igor Gašević (Independent candidate): 0.3% (with a margin of error of ±0.05%)
- Siniša Karan (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats – SNSD – Milorad Dodik): 49.6% (with a margin of error of ±1.50%)
- Slavko Dragičević (Independent candidate): 0.3% (with a margin of error of ±0.04%)
- Nikola Lazarević (Ecological Party of Republika Srpska): 0.4% (with a margin of error of ±0.07%)
The election results collected by the observers of the Coalition “Pod lupom” align with the results published by the CEC BiH. The difference between the two leading candidates is 0.7% and is within the margin of statistical error, which for the leading candidates is ±1.5%. Therefore, in accordance with its applied methodology, the Coalition “Pod lupom” cannot confidently confirm the winner of the election race.
The preliminary results of the CEC as of 24 November 2025 show the following results: Dragan Đokanović (0.43%), Branko Blanuša (48.37%), Igor Gašević (0.30%), Siniša Karan (50.30%), Slavko Dragičević (0.23%), and Nikola Lazarević (0.37%).
Both sources (PVT Pod lupom and preliminary CEC results) indicate a tight race between the two candidates who dominated public discourse and the election campaign.
Historically Low Voter Turnout in the Early Election for President of Republika Srpska
The Coalition “Pod lupom” also monitors voter turnout information. The recorded turnout in the Early Election was 35.8% (with a statistical margin of error of ±1.3% at a 95% confidence interval). For comparison, turnout in the previous 2022 General Election in Republika Srpska was 53%. This indicates that turnout in this election decreased by almost one-third, meaning nearly 200,000 fewer citizens voted. This marks the lowest recorded turnout for higher levels of government elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The only lower turnout has been recorded in some municipalities and cities during local elections.
According to the latest CEC information, 443,472 voters cast their ballots at regular polling stations, or 35.78%. The deviation from the turnout data recorded by the Coalition is practically zero. This confirms that the independent data of the Coalition “Pod lupom” is accurate and reliable, and both sources point to the same, very low turnout.
Several factors may have contributed to the lower turnout — from the fact that these were not regular elections to which voters are accustomed, to adverse weather conditions, i.e., snowfall that affected BiH in the days leading up to Election Day, as well as voter distrust in the election process and political actors. Without additional and more extensive research, it is not possible to precisely determine the causes of low turnout, and the factors presented represent estimates based on past experience and observed trends.
CHRONOLOGICAL OVERVIEW OF ELECTION DAY (EXTENDED OBSERVATION RESULTS)
The “Pod lupom” Coalition presents below the more detailed findings of election-day observation, based on a significantly larger volume of processed data. Unlike the preliminary information released during election day and night, the preliminary assessment of election day by the “Pod lupom” Coalition provides a chronological overview of all stages of the electoral process—from the access of observers to polling stations and the opening of polling stations, through the voting process, to the closing of polling stations, the vote-counting process, and the determination of election results. This expanded dataset enables a more comprehensive understanding of the quality of election day, the irregularities identified, and the overall compliance of the process with electoral regulations.
Access of Observers to Polling Stations
Generally Unobstructed Start of Observation
Most observers of the Coalition “Pod lupom” began their work without obstruction, confirming a regular start to Election Day and the readiness of most polling station committees to cooperate with accredited observers.
Impact of Weather Conditions on Access to Polling Stations
Snowfall and difficult road conditions in the morning hours posed objective obstacles that prevented a number of observers from reaching polling stations on time or at all.
Identified Isolated Problems in Access
The Coalition “Pod lupom” also recorded a limited number of cases in which observers were unable to access polling stations due to procedural barriers and organizational issues; however, these cases did not constitute systemic restrictions on observation.
Recorded Observation Bans as the Most Serious Irregularity at This Stage
Instances of observation bans in Teslić and Petrovo (074B002B and 045B006) represent a significant violation of fundamental principles of legality and transparency. These incidents highlight the need for consistent application of rules and improved training of polling station committees regarding the role and rights of observers. Although the incidents were resolved, their occurrence at the beginning of Election Day indicates the need for careful monitoring of the further course of the election, as early deviations from established rules are often indicators of additional irregularities during voting and vote counting.
Opening and Arrangement of Polling Stations
Polling stations were mostly opened on time without significant delays. Exactly at 7:00 a.m., 91.8% of polling stations opened; between 7:01 and 7:15, 6.8% opened; 1.1% opened with delays until 8:00 a.m., and one polling station opened after 8:00 a.m.
One polling station in Kneževo (068B005 Korićani) did not open. An attempt was made to deliver the election material to the polling station, but due to impassable roads, the material was returned to the Municipal Election Commission in Kneževo. The CEC BiH held an emergency session and decided to postpone and reschedule the election for this polling station. The postponed election will be held on Sunday, 30 November 2025.
The Coalition “Pod lupom” recorded isolated cases of procedural shortcomings or violations of legal provisions. Below is an overview of several statistical indicators collected during the opening and arrangement of polling stations, illustrating the extent to which Election Day began in accordance with prescribed procedures and rules:
- It is estimated that 19.2% of polling stations were not accessible to persons with disabilities who use wheelchairs or other mobility aids.
- At 6.8% of polling stations, not all polling station committee members were present at 06:00 a.m.
- At 2% of polling stations, there is suspicion that positions within polling station committees were traded between political subjects.
- At 0.8% of polling stations, some sensitive election materials were missing.
- At 0.8% of polling stations, there is suspicion that presidents and deputy presidents of committees were party-affiliated individuals, which is illegal.
- At 0.6% of polling stations, manual counting of ballots was not conducted before opening.
- At 0.3% of polling stations, the list of all committee members with the names of the political subjects they represent was not visibly displayed, which is illegal.
As additional information, the Coalition “Pod lupom” also monitored the gender of polling station committee presidents: 51.7% were male, and 48.3% were female. This nearly equal representation indicates adherence to legal provisions related to gender equality, representing a positive aspect of election organization.
Voting Process
During the observation of the voting process, electoral irregularities and recurring issues traditionally seen in previous electoral cycles were recorded:
- family voting (37.8% of polling stations)
- voting without proof of needing assistance (29.2%)
- providing assistance to a large number of voters in the booth (20.1%)
- voting without checking identification documents (3.7%)
Closing of Polling Stations
Most polling stations closed on time. At 3.4% of polling stations, closing was slightly delayed up to 15 minutes, and one polling station closed with a delay until 20:00.
Below is an overview of key statistical data showing the extent to which the closing of polling stations was conducted in accordance with regulations:
- At 1.1% of polling stations, entry was allowed after closing.
- Most voters who were inside or in front of polling stations at 19:00 were allowed to vote, except at 0.6% of polling stations.
- At 0.6% of polling stations, not all committee members were present during closing.
Vote Counting
According to the latest information, observers of the Coalition “Pod lupom” reported that 1.7% of ballots were invalid.
Below is an overview of key statistical findings illustrating conditions at polling stations during the counting process:
- At 8.1% of polling stations, unused and damaged ballots were not packed in envelopes and placed with non-red pencils in the security bag.
- At 2.9% of polling stations, the adjudication of invalid ballots was not done in accordance with CEC regulations.
- At 0.9% of polling stations, observers were not able to follow the counting process without obstruction.
- At 0.3% of polling stations, after opening the ballot box, a stamp or pencil was found on the table used for counting.
- At 0.3% of polling stations, ballots from the box did not have the required stamp and signature of a committee member.
Packaging of Election Material
This section of the preliminary assessment presents statistical data on identified deficiencies in the packaging of materials:
- At 2% of polling stations, not all committee members signed the Ballot Accounting Form and summary results forms.
- At 1.2% of polling stations, irregularities were detected in the packaging of election material.
- At 0.6% of polling stations, yellow copies of the summary result forms were not visibly displayed, while at 13.4%, they were displayed but illegible.
Serious Types of Electoral Irregularities
The Coalition “Pod lupom” recorded a total of 32 serious electoral irregularities related to: pressure on voters (6), violations of election silence (6), shortage of assigned election material (6), denial of observation (2), unlawful publication of public opinion poll results (2), polling stations without posted lists of committee members (2), photography at polling stations (2), and 6 various other types of irregularities.
Citizen Reports
On Election Day, the Coalition “Pod lupom” received 14 citizen reports related to violations of election silence, pressure on voters (vote buying, coercion), complaints about the voting process, party promotional materials near polling stations, etc.
Acknowledgements
The Coalition for Free and Fair Elections “Pod lupom” congratulates all civic and nonpartisan observers of the electoral process for successfully completing their tasks and thanks them for their exceptional commitment and contribution to the independent observation mission and to free and fair elections.
The Coalition “Pod lupom” also congratulates all member organizations that participated in the observation mission, which began well before Election Day. The mission involved 26 long-term observers (LTOs) representing 21 civil society organizations.
We thank the media for their professional reporting, which helped disseminate information about our work and supported the mission of transparent and fair elections.
We also extend our appreciation to all electoral stakeholders who demonstrated fairness and cooperation, with the hope that such collaboration will continue to grow and strengthen in the future.
And, of course, we thank all citizens who, by participating, showed that they care about democracy and free elections. Your trust and engagement are at the very heart of democracy.
